← Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
Water FractalTier 1
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 13 | 5-5-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -1.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 46.5% | -2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 45.2% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.8% | +2.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.6 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 5 | 0-3-2 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -5.5 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 64.5% | +8.3 |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.7% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 65.3% | +9.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Slimes | 1.8% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.4% | -7.2 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.1% | +6.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 42.8% | -5.4 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.7% | +6.4 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Water Tonoris | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Wind Polkhawk | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.3 |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Halt | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sweet Ambrosia | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fracturize | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Burst Asunder | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eventide Lure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Protective Fractal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostnip Pirouette | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleric Robes | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glimmer Essence Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |